20 Ocak 2016 Çarşamba

Tahminleme hakkında kışkırtıcı düşünceler...



Thinking, Fast and Slow / Daniel Kahneman / 2011 kitabından referans vererek yorumluyorum:


sayfa 93: Because System1 represents categories by a prototype or a set of typical exemplars, it deals well with averages but poorly with sums. Sistem1 sürüngen beyne karşılık geliyor, ana motivasyonu hayatta kalmak ve otomatik-istemsiz çalışıyor, üstelik kapatılamıyor. Dolayısıyla herhangi bir tahmin sonucunda dayanılmaz şekilde ortalama değere ilgi duyuyoruz.

sayfa 95: The control over intended computations is far from precise: we often compute much more than we want or need. I call this excess computation the mental shotgun. Sistem1 uyanık olduğumuz her durumda sürekli faal haldedir. Sadece bakıyorum dediğinizde dahi etrafınızın 3 boyutlu modelini hesaplıyordur. sistem2 nin bilinçli hesapla komutuyla birlikte farkında olmadan daha fazlasına meyil ederiz. Big Data veya detaylı rapor, model vb hakkında bir daha düşünmekte yarar var sanıyorum. Gerçekten ihtiyacınız var mı?

sayfa 97: If a satisfactory answer to a hard question is not found quickly, System1 will find a related question that is easier and will answer it... This is substitution... The technical definition of heuristic is a simple procedure that helps find adequate, though often imperfect, answers to difficult questions. The Word comes from the same root as eureka. Dolayısıyla çoğu zaman prosedürlerin yerine sezgilerimizle hareket ediyoruz. Optimum için yeterli kesinlik, zaman, veri yokken dahi işler durmuyor. Belki en uygun çözümü tek seferde bulamıyoruz ama sürekli iyileştirebiliyoruz. Belirsizliğin hakim olduğu bugünün dünyasında öğrenebilme becerimiz neyi bildiğimizden daha önemli hale geldi. Kısıtlar Yönetiminin "approximately right, not precisely wrong" yaklaşımını bu yüzden seviyorum.

sayfa 160, 184: This is a trap for forecasters and their clients: adding detail to scenarios makes them more persuasive, but less likely to come true... extreme groups regress to the mean over time... Detay arttıkça tahmin kalitesi bozulur. Bir müşteri düşünün, satın alma olasılığı %50 ve seçtiğiniz lokasyondaki 2 mağazadan biri sizin olsun. Bu müşterinin satın alma olasılığı %50 iken, sizden satın alma olasılığı %25 olur. Daha çok detay, daha düşük olasılık...

sayfa 241: It is wrong to blame anyone for failing to forecast accurately in an unpredictable World. However, it seems fair to blame professionals for believing they can succeed in an impossible task... intuition cannot be trusted in the absence of stable regularities in the environment. 1920 lerden bugünlere gelirken hem belirsizlik hem de hız çok arttı. Dolayısıyla eski paradigmanın temel varsayımı olan "kesinlik" kayboldu ve eski paradigma geçersizleşti. Tahminlerin yanlış çıkmasını eleştirmek doğru değil ama "tahmin edebileceğini iddia edenleri" elbette eleştirebilirsiniz!Dolayısıyla tahmin edebilirlik yerine hızlı tepkiye odaklanmanın firmaları daha rekabetçi yapacağını düşünüyorum.

sayfa 226: Dawes observed that the complex statistical algorithm adds little or no value... The important conclusion from this research is that an algorithm that is constructed on the back of an envelope is often good enough to compete with an optimally weighted formula, and certainly good enough to outdo expert judgement. Algoritmanın daha karmaşığı daha iyi sonuç vermiyor! Bu yüzden planlamak yerine uygulamak, tahmin etmek yerine tepki vermek daha iyi bir stratejidir. Plan gereksizdir demiyorum ama adaptasyonu daha çok önemsiyorum. Kısıtlar Yönetiminin sadelikten gelen gücünü böyle zamanlarda daha çok hissediyorum.

SCAI.TECH

Tahmin, plan, icra...

Belirsizlik ve değişkenlik her zaman verimin düşmanıydı. Dolayısıyla hep bunlarla savaşıldı. Deming İPK ile değişkenliği normalleştirdi, 6Sigma değişkenliğin tamamen bitirilebileceğini umdu. Sağlanan kesinlik sayesinde satış tahmini yapabilecek ve böylece ERP kullanabilecektik.  

Gerçekten belli bir konuda gelecek tahmini yapılabilir mi? Örneğin 1920 li yıllarda bir iş kurarken ekonominin genel yapısı gerçekten öngörülebilir miydi? Daha yeni bir dünya savaşından çıkmışken, daha büyük bir yenisi akla gelir miydi? Bildiğimiz 20.yüzyıl, olası tarih akışlarından sadece birisidir. Bu dönemin 4 etkili figürünü hatırlayalım: Churchill, Roosevelt, Hitler ve Mussolini’ nin aynı tarihlerde iktidarda olmalarını düşünün. Diğer tüm faktörleri bir tarafa atıp sadece doğum anındaki cinsiyete bakalım. Dördünün de erkek olması ihtimali 0,50 X 0,50 X 0,50 X 0,50 = 0,0625 = %6 dır. Birisi bile bayan olsaydı tarihin akışı tamamen değişebilirdi! Başarı potansiyeli %6 olan bir projeyi uygulamak ister miydiniz?

Şimdi daha işle ilgili bir konuya geçelim. Önümüzdeki bir yıllık dönemde, her ay, her bayideki, her ürün için satış tahmini yapacağız. Bunun için geçmiş dönemdeki satış verilerini kullanacağız. Ancak çeşitli çekincelerimiz var..

Belki bir dönemde bayide ürün kalmadığı için satışlar düşük çıkmıştır, bu durumda tahmin de düşük olacaktır. Belki bir dönem bayinin civarında başka bir dükkanda daha benzer ürün satılmış ama bu dükkan bir sebeple kapanmıştır. Belki televizyonda bir dönem “sağlıklı beslenmeyle” ilgili bir program çıkmış ve satışlar azalmıştır. Belki bir dönem gençlerin sevdiği yıldızlardan birisi elinde sizin ürününüz varken fotoğraflanmıştır. Belki havalar o dönemde her zamankinden soğuk veya sıcak olmuştur. Belki rakipleriniz benzer bir ürün çıkarmıştır, geçici bir promosyon yapmıştır ya da siz bir dönem promosyon yapmışsınızdır. Belkiler çoğaltılabilir.

Tahminlerde hata çıkması normaldir. Vade uzadıkça, detay arttıkça, geçmiş veri bulanıklaştıkça, gelecek belirsizleştikçe hata riski artar. Tuhaf olan “tahmine mutlaka ihtiyacımız olduğuna ve dahası tahmin edilebileceğine olan inancımızdır”.

“Ama sık sık tahmin revizesi yapıyoruz” diyebilirsiniz. Bu Deming’ in kontrol altındaki sürece yersiz yere müdahale etmeyin dediği noktadır.

“Big Data yorumluyoruz” diyebilirsiniz. Daniel Kahneman’ ın Thinking, Fast & Slow eserinde atıfta bulunulan çalışmalar, ağırlıklandırılmış çoklu parametrelerin tahmin kalitesine katkısının neredeyse olmadığını gösteriyor.

Gece araba sürüyorken far menzilinizden ötesini göremiyorsunuz ama yine de çok şükür eve kadar gidebiliyorsunuz. Tahminle çalışmak, dikiz aynasına bakarak araba sürmeye benzer. Yol düz, hava açık, trafik boş, hızınız düşükse idare edebilirsiniz.

Tahmin gereksizdir demiyorum. Tahmine göre satın almak, üretmek ve dağıtmak tehlikelidir diyorum. Alternatifi çevik ve uyanık olmaktır. Evrim, bunu başaranları ödüllendirmiştir.
SCAI.TECH

15 Ocak 2016 Cuma

amazon review: The Quick startup Guide / Robin Wiman / 2015

The Quick Startup Guide: Starting a Business (How to Step-By-Step Create Your Small Business on a Shoestring Budget) (The Guide on How to Startup Your Business)
The Quick Startup Guide: Starting a Business (How to Step-By-Step Create Your Small Business on a Shoestring Budget) (The Guide on How to Startup Your Business)
Robin Wiman

4.0 out of 5 stars Book title could have been stated "for online business", January 14, 2016            
Supportive and inspiring style.
Very good for online traders.
Unfortunately I found the book title somehow misleading.
I was looking for something about launching a software+concultancy business.
I like action lists.

amazon review: Sure Success Business Startup Handbook / Elland Toh / 2014

SURE SUCCESS BUSINESS STARTUP HANDBOOK: 12 Sure-fire success ways to make your business successful &15 reasons why businesses fail - and how you can avoid these common pitfalls
SURE SUCCESS BUSINESS STARTUP HANDBOOK: 12 Sure-fire success ways to make your business successful &15 reasons why businesses fail - and how you can avoid these common pitfalls
Elland Toh

3.0 out of 5 stars Sure success requires more than advising..., January 14, 2016            
It is based on US and if you are living a different country it loses its charm.
There are good cautions and advices for beginners.
I believe a somewhat already started "beginner" needs more descriptive guidance.
It is mentioned that there are online free training material but none of them has been listed as websites.
I wish to follow a guiding questions and fill in the blanks to form my business plan.
It would be great if an example business plan has been presented for benchmarking.

amazon review: Why Startups Fail / Can Akdeniz / 2015

Why Startups Fail: Deadly Mistakes of Business Startup Founders Explained
Why Startups Fail: Deadly Mistakes of Business Startup Founders Explained
Can Akdeniz, 2015

3.0 out of 5 stars good for fresh starters, January 14, 2016            
This is a collection of principles about starting up a business.
It could be very eye-opening for a very new starter.
I was expecting more "how-to" style, for instance a workbook format which I could fill in my comments to guiding questions and having a business plan at the end.

13 Ocak 2016 Çarşamba

amazon highlights: Box Breakers / Fredda McDonald / 2015


Innovation is nothing new and the box can be broken. If an idea or an invention does not fundamentally solve a problem, then it’s just an idea. It is not really an innovation.


the most important currency we have to trade is truly our ideas. However, the value of those ideas is directly related to their ultimate adoption, and that adoption has to be linked to solving a problem.


“meaningful innovation” a business idea must first address a need, improve a process, increase productivity, or make life easier. Adoption of interoperability as a key component of future design.

For starters, the limited resources of the team were both a constraint and an asset.


The common denominator in both cases was that the “boots on the ground” people found a solution by creating an imaginative combination of existing and familiar assets. Regardless of the appeal of an innovation, it will not get traction if it is too expensive, and nothing is more economical than using what you already have.


Principle of The Three E’s: Ecological, Economical and Easy


Uber put existing resources together in a unique way to improve the transportation ecosystem.

The use case for an improved consumer experience bears out the principles of the 3 E’s perfectly. If you build it, they will come, but only if it is economical, you make it easy, and you utilize the existing resources of the ecosystem wisely.


Any industry sitting on excess capacity—possibly your industry—should be on alert. Because here is the most important lesson of all: idle capacity in any form makes your company a sitting duck, simply waiting for disruption.


What they really did was link together existing technology and processes to create a solution that helps women access the fashion ecosystem in a more responsible way by better utilizing an underutilized resource. Looking through the filter of the Principle of the 3 E’s, Rent the Runway is absolutely ecological, it is certainly easy to use, and it is radically economical.


One of the most vital factors for success of the M-Pesa mobile payments system is that it is easy for consumers. Adoption has been rapid and widespread because using these mobile devices is so intuitive. M-Pesa also demonstrates the Ecology Principle in every sense. By taking advantage of previously reused and refurbished mobile devices, this innovation is taking advantage of existing resources. Furthermore, by utilizing existing retail establishments for cash back and deposit services, the M-Pesa currency system takes maximum advantage of what is already there.

Lastly, this innovation took off because it is very economical. The devices themselves are provided for free or at a very nominal cost because the mobile network operator ultimately gains revenue from the airtime utilization.


Innovation is not always about technology; technology is often just the enabler of innovation.


They created a stencil design to cut these boxes in such a way that when they were folded, they formed a school bag to carry books and when the child arrived at school, he or she could unfold the book bag to become a desk! This invention is called the Help Desk, and they are now being used effectively in remote regions to improve the quality of education for many schoolchildren. A discarded box that was destined for the landfill is now both a desk and a book bag. Ecological? Yes, and it fits the use case profile of meaningful innovation theory perfectly. These boxes are also economical, costing less than 20 cents each to manufacture. Now the families of millions of school children are in reach of both a desk and a book bag at that price. Assembly is also incredibly easy. The kids can quickly transform their bag into a desk and at the end of the day reverse the process to carry their books home.


The first secret to making this process work is to optimize collaboration between your people and have the discipline to ask the right questions: 1. The people who invented them 2. When they were invented. Teams of people do great things together. Innovation rarely happens in isolation.


What is your company doing to promote cross-functional and truly diverse idea sharing among your employees? Like-minded energy drives toward homogony. It’s only when we embrace diversity of thought that we can break through to new ideas. Most people need external stimuli to interact with others who are not like-minded.

1. Who are you actually hiring (versus who you are interviewing)?

2. What does your “thought diversity” quotient look like?

3. How diverse are the people who most influence decisions for investing your company’s money?

4. What have you done to create an environment at your company that actively promotes cross-functional yet organic collaboration?

 

What is available to you today that is either underutilized or can be actively exploited in a new way?

1. What do you have today that is underutilized? How can you combine that with other assets to create something new?     

2. Do you actively poll team members not directly on the project or outside the company to see what they know about possible assets?

3. What insights can past endeavors contribute on available tools and technology to solve your problem?

 

What can you do to make your solution radically economical? The lesson here is obvious: innovation is going to happen in your industry. If you are not looking at radically economical ways to solve problems at your company with the same attitude someone from outside your company would approach them, then sooner or later you will be disrupted.

1. If your competitor wanted to put you out of business, at what price would they market your product or service?  

2. How much would someone who knows nothing about your business expect to pay for your product?

3. If profit were no longer a consideration for you, what price would you set for your products?

 

Are you actively finding solutions that are easy for the ultimate user? It is very hard to make things easy, and it is not simple to keep them from becoming complex.

1. Are the complexities of your solution necessary or is that just the way it has always been done?

2. If you could answer the question “Wouldn’t it be awesome if …,” how might your solution work?

3. What would a person totally unfamiliar with your solution or product say about how easy/hard it is?

 

To be successful you need to create your innovation by setting aside the rules you know. Very often, companies are solving for a problem that people don’t have, and innovation for the sake of innovation will not meet with mass adoption. As we established previously, innovation must solve a problem or meet a perceived need to be meaningful.

1. What market force motivated you to create this solution? How much will people have to change to adopt your idea?    

2. What problem will it solve for your customers today? What about customers tomorrow?

3. What is the perceived need that will cause this solution to reach mass adoption for your ultimate user?

 

The bottom line is this: with a good business process that supports a culture of collaboration and the discipline to ask the right questions of our people and those outside our company, we can increase the likelihood of success for our future efforts.


Make sure your ideas are easy for users, radically economical, and most important of all, ecological.

 

12 Ocak 2016 Salı

amazon review: Thinking, Fast and Slow / Daniel Kahneman / 2011


Thinking, Fast and Slow
Thinking, Fast and Slow
by Daniel Kahneman
Edition: Paperback



5.0 out of 5 stars Eye opener, showed me "why" of what I have done recently..., January 11, 2016
I have tried to summarize my life in terms of decision making. I could not succeed. Then I have tried this book. Amazingly within 3 broad concepts everything has been fit in.
1. System Concept: There heve been different names for this concept. System1 is the survival instinct builtin out brain. System2 is the analytic mind of us. they are always in touch and surprisingly we have been guided by System1 most of the time even we are not living in jungles anymore!
2. Econ-Human Distinction: I am an engineer and 25 years of experienced manager in a company. I have not realized that basic assumptions of economic theory are so invalid as per my personal way of being a human. That is why the author named it as a different specie, ECON. We, HUMANS, do feel, remember, inconsistent :)
3. Two Selves : Experiencing Self is the one living with us, real experience. Remebering Self is the score keper and decision maker.

In the book you could also find very interesting details about sales communication, tips for recruitment, cautions against use of forecasting as well.