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Complementary to World Is Flat by Thomas Friedmann,
Attractive subject. Nice to have a draft to think about origins of globalization.
Thomas Friedman / World Is Flat sets 10 items to make glaobalization possible. This is a alist of 10 people.
Author is humble about selecting 10 extraordinary people. I do agree with him for selected 10. I think limiting with 10 is cumbersome. For example, Ottoman Empire / Fatih Sultan Mehmet conquered Istanbul and opened a new era for humanity. He let different cultures - nationalities - genders - religous people to live AND trade AND pray in their own way. Another example is Gorbachov, letting Soviet Empire to breakdown without hassel, leading the Berlin wall go down. |
* Yeni nesil tahminsiz dinamik stok yönetimiyle stokları azaltarak bulunurluk sağlayın. * Gününde teslim edin. * Nakit akışınızı iyileştirin. * SCAI>TECH.
30 Ağustos 2017 Çarşamba
amazon review: From Silk To Silicon / Jeffrey E. Garten / 2017
amazon highlights: From Silk To Silicon / Jeffrey E. Garten / 2017
Asia is pivotal
to the future of the globe, and could have as much influence on the course of
globalization as what happens in the United States and Europe.
Globalization
can reinforce and multiply positive trends, but it can just as easily
accelerate the spread of highly damaging developments too.
Globalization is
about a growing connection among people of different nationalities. Globalization
is about transmission of ideas across borders.
It is about common vulnerability,
be it climate change, public health emergencies, or recession. It is, in short,
about goods, services, ideas, peaceful movements, and aggressive and
destructive forces all coursing through the channels that have been opening and
growing for centuries. Globalization is also a mind-set, focused on confidence
that open societies that let in foreign influences are good, or, alternatively,
reflecting convictions that national go-it-alone policies are a better way. The
McKinsey Global Institute has said that the transformation of society is
“happening ten times as fast and at 300 times the scale, or roughly 3,000 times
the impact” of the Industrial Revolution. In the end, though, the world has
always moved in the direction of more integration. History shows that the
deep-seated problems that we confront today are not only challenges but
opportunities.
INTRODUCTION
Every day we
experience the ups and downs, the benefits and threats of a more interconnected
world. In From Silk to Silicon I selected nine men and one woman who met
several criteria. First, they had to be transformational leaders. I also
identified people who could be characterized as “first movers,” those who
initiated or were in on the ground floor of a powerful, fundamental trend or
movement that had an outsize impact on the world. My subjects also had to be
“doers” and not just thinkers, people who rolled up their sleeves and made
something of global significance happen. None of my characters are saints, to
be sure, and several in particular had dark sides and created considerable
suffering in their wake.
1.
GENGHIS KHAN
The Accidental Empire Builder 1162–1227
The Silk Road
was also a transmission belt for the extensive interchange of culture and
religion. The threat to this prospering global crossroads was political:
centrifugal forces were breaking apart the power centers of Europe, the Islamic
world, and China. The Mongols revolutionized warfare, which made their
conquests possible, but the empire lasted so long because of the expansion of
trade, transportation, and communication; the intermixing of people, ideas, and
culture; and the unification of administrative procedures.
They did not
impose political ideology or cultural or religious ideas on others but rather
created an environment of extreme tolerance, so long as the basic governing
regime wasn’t fundamentally challenged and so long as the booty flowed smoothly
from the far-flung territories to the Mongolian center. Indifferent to
controlling matters of religion or culture, the Mongols focused on building
commerce and the physical, administrative, and legal infrastructure to help it
flow freely.
Although the
Mongols never occupied eastern Europe and the Mediterranean countries, they
stimulated a revolution in productivity in these regions by exposing the West
to specialized tools, new blast furnace technology, new crops that required
less work to plant, and to new concepts such as paper money, primacy of state
over church, and freedom of religion.
Asia is again
ascending. It now accounts for nearly 50 percent of the global GDP. Its share
of production of resources, trade, and investment has also reached levels
critical to the global economy. It has the bulk of the world’s population. We
are coming full circle. And it is a good bet that a new Silk Road, stretching
from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean in both spirit and modern physical form,
will continue to unfold throughout this century, increasing global
interdependence by huge orders of magnitude.
2.
PRINCE HENRY
The Explorer Who Made a Science of Discovery 1394–1460
Henry had led
the way in turning a nation of peasant farmers and coastal fishermen into an
empire built on oceanic discovery and overseas settlements. He had transformed
Lisbon into a cosmopolitan hub for the increasingly international culture of
seafaring business.
In the century
after Prince Henry, continuous trade among all key regions of the earth was
established for the first time, and the world was becoming a single network. An
ever-expanding array of commodities and finished products were being
interchanged—sugar, pepper, nutmeg, cloves, cinnamon, grain, wine, timber,
gold, silver, silks, textiles, porcelain, horses, to name but a few. At the
same time these vessels carried parasites and insects that would transplant
malaria and smallpox from Eurasia to the Americas, and syphilis from the
Western Hemisphere to Eurasia.
3.
ROBERT CLIVE
The Rogue Who Captured India for the British Empire 1725–1774
The Company was
becoming the embodiment of European mercantilism, a doctrine that justified the
use of any measures, commercial or military, necessary to dominate global
economic competition. Sometime around 1600, Sir Walter Raleigh encapsulated the
mercantile view that would drive European leaders when he said, “Whosoever
commands the trade of the world, commands the riches of the world and
consequently the world itself.”
Clive laid the
foundation for the East India Company to become an industrial powerhouse and
for the Company to be the instrument with which Britain conquered India. As
Oxford professor John Darwin writes, the British Empire was a global system
connected by extensive links on all continents fostered by the British navy,
which controlled the seas and was available to protect Britain’s colonies; by
extensive diplomatic ties among the same participants; by deep cultural and
educational exchanges; and, of course, by commercial and financial
interdependencies—all intersecting in the government corridors in London.
This world
system was strongly supported by a complex network of mail services, telegraph
wires, undersea cables, passenger steamers, and eventually imperial air routes.
The Company had advanced globalization in a number of ways. It responded to the
massive increase in consumer demand in England by importing goods such as
pepper, silk, tea, and opium from all over the world. It also exported goods
from England.
The Company
invested heavily in boats, ports, warehouses, and roads in dozens of its
colonies, and in new trade and financial arrangements, such as insurance, that
allowed trade to flourish among its territorial possessions. In this regard it
not only facilitated trade to and from England but it made deals between other
countries, as well—between China and India, for example. Furthermore, the East
India Company showed how government and commercial enterprises of the same
nation can make common cause in expanding commerce and culture across borders.
4.
MAYER
AMSCHEL ROTHSCHILD The Godfather of Global Banking 1744–1812
What the
Rothschilds did at a minimum was to serve their highly placed clients—extremely
wealthy individuals, influential government officials, industrial titans,
almost all operating across borders—by offering them the latest financial
products, tailored for them, in large amounts, and in the most discreet or
confidential manner that the client preferred.
The Rothschilds
were among the first banks to allow people to deposit money in their home
country, which could be withdrawn by a client or representative in a second
country, in local currency. The House of Rothschild constituted a clearinghouse
for international finance that began with three money centers—London,
Frankfurt, and Paris—and was eventually extended to Vienna and Naples in the
1820s, with one of the five brothers residing in each city. The Rothschilds
used this clearinghouse to pioneer advances in the international bond market,
with significant financial, political, and social implications.
One reason the
Rothschilds were able to make this system work was the resources that the
family had amassed, but another was the level of trust they had built up by
cultivating personal ties to public officials across the Continent. That’s how
finance works. The close links among the brothers and the five branches allowed
them to capture more information quicker than their competitors could, and
therefore to obtain the best interest rates and the best currency values
throughout Europe.
The Rothschilds
led the development of a sophisticated international bond market not because no
one had thought about doing it before but because no one had the capacity—the
internal coordination, the logistical capability, the relationships, and the
trust among all partners—to make it work in such volumes and with such
reliability. Gathering news became a Rothschild obsession, and it drew the
father and brothers closer to the inner circles of power; the closer they got,
the better their insights became. By the early 1800s, the House of Rothschild
was constantly upgrading its internal courier service to make it faster and
more secure. They built redundancy into the system, using pigeons and
stagecoaches to deliver copies of the same message on different routes.
The titans of
banking shape the political and social structure because they decide who gets
money and at what price. The global financial system allows the world to grow
faster because it channels savings—excess money—into places where the money is
needed, to facilitate trade, for example, or to build roads, ports, bridges, or
new companies. Global finance is also precarious because problems in one part
of the world can spread like a contagious disease.
5.
CYRUS FIELD
The Tycoon Who Wired the Atlantic 1819–1892
The telegraph
not only linked the world in real time but became a bridge to subsequent
international communications breakthroughs—the radio in the 1920s, the
telephone in the 1950s, the Internet in the 1990s.
The
transatlantic cable would eventually have been built without Field, but it is
hard to imagine how it could have been done as early as it was, when the
technology was so underdeveloped, without someone like him to lead, inspire,
and organize the financing, the technology, the wide array of talent, and, of
course, the design and execution of the entire project.
Since
communication is perhaps the most powerful force accelerating globalization,
Field’s accomplishment was critical to furthering all that Genghis Khan, Prince
Henry, and Mayer Amschel Rothschild began. Field’s transatlantic cable, and the
cables that quickly followed it in other parts of the world, shrank time and
space, making the world smaller and the spread of international influences of
all kinds infinitely faster.
6.
JOHN D.
ROCKEFELLER The Titan Who Built the Energy Industry and Also Launched Global
Philanthropy 1839–1937
And beyond that,
he used his astounding wealth to establish another industry—global
philanthropy, a business that filled the vacuum between the international
activities of governments and those of multinational corporations, and focused
on challenges such as health and education around the world. Without oil wealth
he would not have had the wherewithal to transform global health and education.
Without his far-reaching philanthropic achievements he would not have been a
role model for many millionaires and billionaires after him who made an impact
on the world well beyond the commercial enterprises they ran. He lent money to
his son at commercial rates of interest and often demanded the loan be repaid
ahead of time, thereby compelling John to develop the habit of maintaining
protective reserves.
Rockefeller
consolidated his control over refining, storing, shipping, sales, and
eventually the extraction of oil in the United States and abroad. He combined
ruthlessly aggressive tactics with innovative organizational moves to enhance
and streamline the management of Standard Oil, the corporate name under which
all his oil-related interests operated. The rise of Standard Oil is
attributable not only to Rockefeller’s aggressive tactics but also to his
management acumen. His company was better managed than the others. He practiced
extreme cost control. He pushed his company to innovate,
For his entire
career, Rockefeller understood the value of surrounding himself with
exceptional talent, which he did by identifying and acquiring experienced
managers with every new takeover. It is also hard to exaggerate how hands-on he
was. He kept the broader picture, the long-term vision and strategy, in clear
view at the same time.
Rockefeller was
also a great delegator. He would often implore his colleagues that neither he
nor they should do anything that someone else could do. He deeply understood
internal communications, coordination, and motivation.
His language was
“we,” not “I.” He ruled, yes, but as the center of a circle of powerful
colleagues. He strove to make decisions by consensus, and he would postpone
most decisions until there was near-unanimous agreement. He believed in
treating workers exceptionally well. He paid high wages, encouraged shorter
hours, and showed great consideration for his staff. He favored a nation run by
big industrial monopolies. He looked favorably on new ways for companies in
distinct industries to “cooperate”—pools, consortiums, monopolies, and other
arrangements that created a more stable and predictable environment.
As a preeminent
American company, Standard Oil received extensive assistance from US embassies
and consulates abroad. These new companies became the embodiment of modern
multinational corporations, straddling continents with their global
transportation and communications systems. They negotiated with, and often
dominated, governments. They created highly sophisticated management systems to
rebuild what Rockefeller had envisioned: vertical integration from exploration,
to refining, to sales at the corner retail station; systems to mobilize finance
on a massive scale; systems to oversee a multinational and multiethnic
workforce.
Rockefeller
wasn’t alone in this kind of endeavor; in fact, Andrew Carnegie’s investment in
libraries around the world preceded Rockefeller’s first major gifts. But
looking at the entire picture—the scope, the philosophy, the strategy, the
organization—the oil baron became the father of modern global philanthropy.
Dispensing
Rockefeller’s escalating fortune in an organized way required some clear
principles. Among them: Surround yourself with the most impressive experts in
the field and carefully identify the avenues of research that would add most to
existing knowledge. Focus on the roots of the problem, aiming for prevention
rather than just mitigating the symptoms. Standard Oil and the companies that
grew out of it epitomize the influence that multinational companies have had on
globalization. But few men in history have done more to power the world’s
growth and development, to address some of its most pressing social problems,
and to make the world more economically integrated.
7.
JEAN MONNET
The Diplomat Who Reinvented Europe 1888–1979
He could not
only envision big things but execute them. In June 1947, worried about the
potential for a Communist takeover in war-weakened Europe, Washington announced
a financial rescue operation in the form of the Marshall Plan, named for US
secretary of state George Marshall. The plan asked Europe to come together to
list its needs for recovery and reconstruction. At a conference of European
governments the next month it was clear that, thanks to Monnet, France was
better organized than other countries to apply aid effectively, and that its
internally coordinated modernization plans should serve as a model for Europe.
France received the lion’s share of American aid, fully funding Monnet’s plan
for French modernization.
The United
States also wanted a united Europe to share the burdens of global diplomacy and
defense and to become a prosperous market for American exports. Monnet became
the personification of the High Authority, a leader who saw the world through
European eyes, not French eyes, or German eyes, or Italian eyes. He recruited a
staff from throughout Europe that became the first cadre of “Eurocrats.” Monnet’s
strength was his vision, not managerial detail.
Dwight Morrow:
“There are two kinds of people—those who want to be someone and those who want
to do something.”
8.
MARGARET
THATCHER The Iron Lady Who Revived Free Markets 1925–2013
Margaret Roberts
would one day become Margaret Thatcher, the first woman ever to become prime
minister of Great Britain or leader of any major industrial democracy. She
would go on to exceed this distinction by becoming the world’s most important
advocate for freeing trade and investment from government control, selling off
state-owned companies to the private sector, weakening labor unions, and, in
general, allowing markets to link with one another to cross borders and build a
web of connections that became—and remains—the motor force of globalization.
“Thatcherism” resulted in the decimation of
many communities, the impoverishment of many people, sharply rising inequality
in an already class-ridden nation, and a society that favored the rich, the
educated, and the connected over the rest.
some quotes from
Abraham Lincoln: You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You
cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot help the
wage-earner by pulling down the wage payer.
“Don’t Tell Me What to Do, Because I Know
That. Just Tell Me How.”
She hated the
very notion of consensus, calling it “the process of abandoning all beliefs,
principles, values and policies in search of something in which no one
believes, but to which no one objects.” In relying so heavily on market forces
to generate growth, Thatcher opened the floodgates to a version of
winner-take-all globalization in which those lacking advantages in education,
skills, or social connections suffer greatly.
Thatcher was not
an originator of ideas; her gift was an ability to grasp important concepts
and, above all, to simplify them in language that could mobilize an entire
society to try radical reform. The future of globalization belongs to a
judicious balance between the private and the public, between competition and
collaboration, between the market and the state, between what nations can do on
their own and what they must do together—in other words, between Thatcher and
Monnet.
9.
ANDREW GROVE
The Man behind the Third Industrial Revolution 1936–2016
If Noyce and
Moore led the way toward a nonhierarchical management culture in Silicon
Valley—the opposite of the corporate environment of the East Coast and a major
factor in the creativity of the US technology industry—that alone would not
have been enough. What was also required was decisive and highly disciplined
management. Andy Grove’s great and distinctive contribution was to achieve
both. Grove was inventing the management process that would make Moore’s law
work in the real world.
Grove underlined
the idea of an “inflection point”—a moment, or a period of time, when a set of
forces are so overwhelming that they compel a fundamental change in the rules
of the game for a company or an industry. This happened in banking, he writes,
when cash machines replaced human tellers. “Allow chaos,” he advised, “then rein it in.” The
concept of inflection points is one of Grove’s most profound contributions to
the theory of management in the unpredictable environment wrought by technology
and globalization.
He was not just
a visionary CEO, he was a leader who created an organization set up to
anticipate change and respond quickly to inflection points. He thus captured
the essence of what it takes for a high-technology company—or perhaps any
ambitious company—to succeed in our era of extraordinary change and volatility.
He showed the world what speed was, what precision was, what risk taking was,
what take-no-prisoners competition was, how you should use recessions to your
advantage by accelerating investments, how to learn from your mistakes and
bounce back even stronger, how to rapidly scale up, and how to spread your
presence to the corners of the earth. He gave us a vivid picture of how to
survive and thrive in business when the only constant is mind-bending change.
Like the other
leaders in this book, Grove did not create the forces that shaped his era, but
he did exploit them with exceptional effectiveness. He is thus a pioneer of the
modern communications age.
10. DENG XIAOPING The Pragmatist Who Relaunched
China 1904–1997
In joining China
to the world and vice versa, Deng made globalization larger and deeper than
ever, and he unleashed new forces that will move the center of global commerce
and political influence from the West toward the East. Perfecting the Socialist
ideal—a society without profits and greed—would come only gradually, in his
view, and change would come through effective organization and management.
“It doesn’t matter if the cat is black or
white, so long as it catches the mouse it is a good cat,” Deng told the party.
Deng put
economic development at the heart of all his efforts, with an emphasis on
achieving a high rate of growth. “When
you open the windows for fresh air,” he once said, “some flies get in.” Deng
was obsessed with science, technology, and education.
The dichotomy
between his openness to experimenting with capitalism and his determination to
maintain disciplined rule under an all-powerful Communist Party was perhaps the
single most important feature of his philosophy and his manner of ruling. Deng
led China out of the wilderness. He rescued it from being an isolated, backward
nation in a world moving quickly toward advanced technological modernization
and unprecedented prosperity, and he gave it the opportunity to become a
central and vibrant part of a globalized society.
He wasn’t the
only official in China who wanted to break with Mao and change direction, but
he was the leader who commanded the influence, respect, experience, relationships,
and political skills to do it. Deng initiated reforms that led to thirty years
of growth averaging more than 9 percent annually—twice the average of other
developing countries, and three times the average of developed nations.
Under Deng,
China had accomplished in two decades what took other nations a century or more
to do.
24 Ağustos 2017 Perşembe
2050 / Prof.Dr.David Passig / 2011 / kitap özeti ve alıntılar
Türk Okuruna
Türkiye'nin önümüzdeki 10 yıl içinde karşılaşacağı en büyük zorluk, bölge ve dünya tarihindeki yerini anlamak ve bunun getirdiği anlayışı benimsemektir.
1. Geçmişten düşünceler
2. Geleceği tahmin etmekte kullanılan temel esaslar
Coğrafya; oluşuma ve sonuçlara yol açıyor. Küreselleşme tek bir büyük topluluk değil, coğrafi şartlarda tarihi yakınlık içeren ve etkileşimli çok sayıda küçük topluluk yaratacak. Dinler bile coğrafi temellidir.
3. Teritoryal Anlaşmazlıkları harekete geçiren güç
Çatışmaların temelinde yatan "doğuştan bize ait olan veya ait olduğumuzu sevme kolaylığıdır". Milliyetçilik doğal ve içgüdüsel bir duygudur. İnsanın sevdiklerinin ve ailesinin yaşadığı yerdeki tecrübesi de milliyetçiliği şekillendirir. Yan yana yaşayan toplumlarda "diğerinin amacını bilmemekten" kaynaklanan bir korku vardır. Jeopolitik incelemelerin kuralları:
5. Yüzyılın iki genel eğilimi
Birincisi küresel ve yerel demografik eğilimler, ikincisi teknolojik eğilimlerdir.
6. 21. yüzyılın demografik eğilimleri
Eğilimler doğrusal değildir, içinde insan olduğu için tahmin edilmesi zordur. 2050 yılında dünya nüfusu 9-10 milyara ulaştıktan sonra giderek azalacaktır. Bu noktaya yaklaşırken uzayan ömür ve artan yaşlı nüfus nedeniyle çeşitli sıkıntılar ortaya çıkacak. Zengin ülkelerde nüfus eriyor, ortadoğuda (müslüman ve yahudi) nüfus artıyor. Çalışan gençler azalınca sosyal güvenlik maliyeti rahatsız edecek, göçmenlik artacak, ordularda asker sıkıntısı görülecek, gerginlikler belirginleşecel, Endüstri 4.0 benzeri çözümler öne çıkacak.
7. 21.yüzyılın teknolojik eğilimleri
Zenginleşenler icat edenler değil, bunu hızla ticarileştirebilenlerdir. Antigravite, ışık hızı, alternatif ve sürdürülebilir enerji kaynakları, paradigma değişimine uyum becerisi gündeme gelecektir.
8. Anlaşmazlık eğilimlerinde dört güç
En önemli dört ülke ABD, Rusya, Türkiye ve Japonya'dır.
9. ABD
Coğrafi olarak savunma kolaylığı vardır, bilinen en büyük deniz kuvvetidir, tehditlere karşı kaynağında söndürme stratejisi vardır. Geniş alanlara rağmen giderek zayıflayan bir nüfus yapısı var. Denizlere ve uzaya hakimlik önemli.
10. Rusya
Ağırlık merkezi Moskova olan bağımsız bir ülkeler topluluğu kurmak istiyor. Doğal gazı kaldıraç olarak kullanacak. ABD yi uzak tutmak için ortadoğuyu karıştırmaya devam edecek. Savunma startejisi tehditlere karşı araya tampon bölge koymaya dayalıdır. ABD nin Rusyanın güneyinde, müttefik, değişime açık, kudret için risk almaya istekli, müslüman coğrafyada etkin, batı ekonomisiyle entegre bir ortağa ihtiyacı var: Türkiye!
11. Türkiye
2008 yılından beri İslama modern bir yorum getirme çabası var. Müslüman dünyasının ve bölgenin en güçlü ekonomisi. Türkçe dil birliği üzerinden orta asya enerjisine açılan koridorda etkin. Askeri güç kullanmadan bölgede varlığını hissetirebilmesi bekleniyor. ABD bölgesel sürtüşmeleri yaratmaya ve kimsenin galip gelememesini sağlamaya devam edecek.
12. 2020 Rusya savaşı
Savaş kazara çıkacak ve önce İsrail - Suriye arasında başlayacak. Devamı Türkiye-Rusya arasında bekleniyor.
13. 2050 Japon savaşı
Demografik kriz Asya' da en çok Japonya' yı vuracak. Uzay teknolojisinde ve deniz kuvvetlerinde ilerleyince ABD açısından risk olarak algılanacak. Güçlenen ve Orta Asyada varlık gösteren Türkiye ile ortak hareket edildiğinde Japonya denizden erişime gerek duymayacak.
14. Mısır
Artan nüfusa yetecek yaşam alanı ihtiyacı olacak
15. Suudi arabistan
Erkek-kadın sayıca eşitsizlik çalkantı yaratacak, kadın sayısını artırmak için Yemen'i işgal etmeyi düşünecek
16. Ürdün
Ortadoğuda diğer arap devletlerine nazaran batıya entegrasyon açısından daha hazırlıklıdır. Nüfustaki ekek-kadın eşitsizliği burada da sorun. artan erkek nüfus ve umutsuzluk radikal eğilimleri besliyor, intihar komandosu vb görülüyor.
17. Filistin özerk yönetimi
Friedman'a göre Filistinlilerin nihai düşmanı her ne kadar İsrail olsa da şu andaki düşmanları diğer Arap ülkeleridir. Türkiye Amerikan yardımı ve dindar söylemle nüfuz kullanacak
18. Suriye
İran - Irak - Rusya - ABD etkisiyle Kürdistan modeli tehditi Türkiye' yi de gerginliğe ortak edecek.
19. Yahudi milletinin kanıtlanabilen tarihi
20. İsrail
21. Gelecekte ortadoğunun siyasi durumu
Türkiye'nin bölgesel süper güç olma süreci 2020 lerde hızlanacak (Hedef 2023!). Türkiye ABD ye karşı koz olarak Rusyaya yaklaşacak (füze sistemi satın alma çabası). Türkiye bu dönemde Suriye ile olan ilişkisini (beklenmedik biçimde siyasi değil, askeri oldu) sürdürecek. Rusya, ABD yi önlemek amacıyla terör ve Kürdistan söylemini canlı tutacak (İran destekli Telafer refarandumu). Türkiye teröre karşı çözüm süreciyle içeride, HAMAS vb ile dışarıda gayret gösterecek. Başarısız Arap coğrafyasında İsraile karşı liderliği Türkiye üstlenecek.
22. Geleceğe yönelik düşünceler
-
Bugünün gelişmeleri ışığında herkes rolünü oynuyor gibi görünüyor, Ağustos 2017
Türkiye'nin önümüzdeki 10 yıl içinde karşılaşacağı en büyük zorluk, bölge ve dünya tarihindeki yerini anlamak ve bunun getirdiği anlayışı benimsemektir.
1. Geçmişten düşünceler
2. Geleceği tahmin etmekte kullanılan temel esaslar
Coğrafya; oluşuma ve sonuçlara yol açıyor. Küreselleşme tek bir büyük topluluk değil, coğrafi şartlarda tarihi yakınlık içeren ve etkileşimli çok sayıda küçük topluluk yaratacak. Dinler bile coğrafi temellidir.
3. Teritoryal Anlaşmazlıkları harekete geçiren güç
Çatışmaların temelinde yatan "doğuştan bize ait olan veya ait olduğumuzu sevme kolaylığıdır". Milliyetçilik doğal ve içgüdüsel bir duygudur. İnsanın sevdiklerinin ve ailesinin yaşadığı yerdeki tecrübesi de milliyetçiliği şekillendirir. Yan yana yaşayan toplumlarda "diğerinin amacını bilmemekten" kaynaklanan bir korku vardır. Jeopolitik incelemelerin kuralları:
- Ortak kader: Küçük ülke / toplumda her şey bireysel algılanır. Büyüklerde yaşananlar gazete haberi gibidir.
- Sosyal sınıf: Varlıklı olanlar toplumun genel gidişinden korunabilir, orta ve alt sınıf daha kırılgandır.
- Değişiklikten korkmak: En yakın çevreye ait olmayan her şeyden korkulur. Kaybetme korkusu, sahip olma sevincinden daha yoğundur.
- Bireysel - Kolektif zaman: Ülkeler zamanı onyıllar - nesillerle ölçer. Bireyler için zaman en fazla birkaç on yıldır, kısa vadelidir.
5. Yüzyılın iki genel eğilimi
Birincisi küresel ve yerel demografik eğilimler, ikincisi teknolojik eğilimlerdir.
6. 21. yüzyılın demografik eğilimleri
Eğilimler doğrusal değildir, içinde insan olduğu için tahmin edilmesi zordur. 2050 yılında dünya nüfusu 9-10 milyara ulaştıktan sonra giderek azalacaktır. Bu noktaya yaklaşırken uzayan ömür ve artan yaşlı nüfus nedeniyle çeşitli sıkıntılar ortaya çıkacak. Zengin ülkelerde nüfus eriyor, ortadoğuda (müslüman ve yahudi) nüfus artıyor. Çalışan gençler azalınca sosyal güvenlik maliyeti rahatsız edecek, göçmenlik artacak, ordularda asker sıkıntısı görülecek, gerginlikler belirginleşecel, Endüstri 4.0 benzeri çözümler öne çıkacak.
7. 21.yüzyılın teknolojik eğilimleri
Zenginleşenler icat edenler değil, bunu hızla ticarileştirebilenlerdir. Antigravite, ışık hızı, alternatif ve sürdürülebilir enerji kaynakları, paradigma değişimine uyum becerisi gündeme gelecektir.
8. Anlaşmazlık eğilimlerinde dört güç
En önemli dört ülke ABD, Rusya, Türkiye ve Japonya'dır.
9. ABD
Coğrafi olarak savunma kolaylığı vardır, bilinen en büyük deniz kuvvetidir, tehditlere karşı kaynağında söndürme stratejisi vardır. Geniş alanlara rağmen giderek zayıflayan bir nüfus yapısı var. Denizlere ve uzaya hakimlik önemli.
10. Rusya
Ağırlık merkezi Moskova olan bağımsız bir ülkeler topluluğu kurmak istiyor. Doğal gazı kaldıraç olarak kullanacak. ABD yi uzak tutmak için ortadoğuyu karıştırmaya devam edecek. Savunma startejisi tehditlere karşı araya tampon bölge koymaya dayalıdır. ABD nin Rusyanın güneyinde, müttefik, değişime açık, kudret için risk almaya istekli, müslüman coğrafyada etkin, batı ekonomisiyle entegre bir ortağa ihtiyacı var: Türkiye!
11. Türkiye
2008 yılından beri İslama modern bir yorum getirme çabası var. Müslüman dünyasının ve bölgenin en güçlü ekonomisi. Türkçe dil birliği üzerinden orta asya enerjisine açılan koridorda etkin. Askeri güç kullanmadan bölgede varlığını hissetirebilmesi bekleniyor. ABD bölgesel sürtüşmeleri yaratmaya ve kimsenin galip gelememesini sağlamaya devam edecek.
12. 2020 Rusya savaşı
Savaş kazara çıkacak ve önce İsrail - Suriye arasında başlayacak. Devamı Türkiye-Rusya arasında bekleniyor.
13. 2050 Japon savaşı
Demografik kriz Asya' da en çok Japonya' yı vuracak. Uzay teknolojisinde ve deniz kuvvetlerinde ilerleyince ABD açısından risk olarak algılanacak. Güçlenen ve Orta Asyada varlık gösteren Türkiye ile ortak hareket edildiğinde Japonya denizden erişime gerek duymayacak.
14. Mısır
Artan nüfusa yetecek yaşam alanı ihtiyacı olacak
15. Suudi arabistan
Erkek-kadın sayıca eşitsizlik çalkantı yaratacak, kadın sayısını artırmak için Yemen'i işgal etmeyi düşünecek
16. Ürdün
Ortadoğuda diğer arap devletlerine nazaran batıya entegrasyon açısından daha hazırlıklıdır. Nüfustaki ekek-kadın eşitsizliği burada da sorun. artan erkek nüfus ve umutsuzluk radikal eğilimleri besliyor, intihar komandosu vb görülüyor.
17. Filistin özerk yönetimi
Friedman'a göre Filistinlilerin nihai düşmanı her ne kadar İsrail olsa da şu andaki düşmanları diğer Arap ülkeleridir. Türkiye Amerikan yardımı ve dindar söylemle nüfuz kullanacak
18. Suriye
İran - Irak - Rusya - ABD etkisiyle Kürdistan modeli tehditi Türkiye' yi de gerginliğe ortak edecek.
19. Yahudi milletinin kanıtlanabilen tarihi
20. İsrail
21. Gelecekte ortadoğunun siyasi durumu
Türkiye'nin bölgesel süper güç olma süreci 2020 lerde hızlanacak (Hedef 2023!). Türkiye ABD ye karşı koz olarak Rusyaya yaklaşacak (füze sistemi satın alma çabası). Türkiye bu dönemde Suriye ile olan ilişkisini (beklenmedik biçimde siyasi değil, askeri oldu) sürdürecek. Rusya, ABD yi önlemek amacıyla terör ve Kürdistan söylemini canlı tutacak (İran destekli Telafer refarandumu). Türkiye teröre karşı çözüm süreciyle içeride, HAMAS vb ile dışarıda gayret gösterecek. Başarısız Arap coğrafyasında İsraile karşı liderliği Türkiye üstlenecek.
22. Geleceğe yönelik düşünceler
-
Bugünün gelişmeleri ışığında herkes rolünü oynuyor gibi görünüyor, Ağustos 2017
12 Ağustos 2017 Cumartesi
amazon review: The Coaching Habit / Michael B. Stanier / 2016
amazon highlights: The Coaching Habit / Michael Bungay Stanier / 2016
You Need a Coaching Habit
You’re probably not getting very
effective coaching; and you’re probably not delivering very effective coaching.
Coaching
is simple. In fact, this book’s Seven Essential Questions give you most of what
you need.
You
can coach someone in ten minutes or less. And in today’s busy world, you have
to be able to coach in ten minutes or less.
Coaching
should be a daily, informal act, not an occasional, formal “It’s Coaching
Time!” event.
You
can build a coaching habit, but only if you understand and use the proven
mechanics of building and embedding new habits.
So let’s look at why coaching others
helps you. It lets you work less hard and have more impact. When you build a
coaching habit, you can more easily break out of three vicious circles that
plague our workplaces: creating overdependence, getting overwhelmed and becoming
disconnected.
- Circle #1: Creating Overdependence. Building a coaching habit will help your team be more self-sufficient by increasing their autonomy and sense of mastery and by reducing your need to jump in, take over and become the bottleneck.
- Circle #2: Getting Overwhelmed. Building a coaching habit will help you regain focus so you and your team can do the work that has real impact and so you can direct your time, energy and resources to solving the challenges that make a difference.
- Circle #3: Becoming Disconnected. it’s not enough just to get things done. You have to help people do more of the work that has impact and meaning.
How to Build a Habit
The change of behavior at the heart
of what this book is about is this: a little more asking people questions and a
little less telling people what to do. But simple doesn’t mean easy, and
theory’s no good if you don’t know how to put it into practice. So before we
look at what to change, we need to understand how to change.
To build an effective new habit, you
need five essential components: a reason, a trigger, a micro-habit, effective
practice, and a plan.
- Identifying the Trigger: When This Happens… Define the trigger, the moment when you’re at a crossroads and could go down either the well-trod road of the old way of behaving or the Robert Frost path less trodden. If you don’t know what this moment is, you’re going to continually miss it and, with that, the opportunity to change your behavior. There are just five types of triggers: location, time, emotional state, other people, and the immediately preceding action. You can see how you might use a number of them to define a very specific trigger.
- Identifying the Old Habit: Instead Of… Articulate the old habit, so you know what you’re trying to stop doing. Again, the more specific you can make it, the more useful it’s going to be.
- Defining the New Behavior: I Will… Define the new behavior, one that will take sixty seconds or less to do. We know that the fundamental shift of behavior you’re looking to accomplish through this book is to give less advice and show more curiosity.
We live within our habits. So shape
the way you want to lead, and build the right coaching habits.
Ask one question at a time. Just one
question at a time.
1: The Kickstart Question : “What’s on your mind?”
The Small Talk Tango: Small talk
might be a useful way to warm up, but it’s rarely the bridge that leads to a
conversation that matters.
Because it’s open, it invites people
to get to the heart of the matter and share what’s most important to them.
You’re not telling them or guiding them. You’re showing them the trust and
granting them the autonomy to make the choice for themselves.
It’s a question that says, Let’s
talk about the thing that matters most. It’s a question that dissolves ossified
agendas, sidesteps small talk and defeats the default diagnosis.
Coaching for performance is about
addressing and fixing a specific problem or challenge. It’s putting out the
fire or building up the fire or banking the fire. It’s everyday stuff, and it’s
important and necessary.
Coaching for development is about
turning the focus from the issue to the person dealing with the issue, the
person who’s managing the fire. This conversation is more rare and
significantly more powerful.
A challenge might typically be
centered on a project, a person or a pattern of behavior.
Call them forward to learn, improve
and grow, rather than to just get something sorted out.
ANSWERS ARE CLOSED ROOMS; AND
QUESTIONS ARE OPEN DOORS THAT INVITE US IN. Nancy Willard
Projects - A
project is the content of the situation, the stuff that’s being worked on. It’s
the easiest place to go to and it will be the most familiar to most of us. This
realm is where coaching for performance and technical change tends to occur.
People - When
you’re talking about people, though, you’re not really talking about them.
You’re talking about a relationship and, specifically, about what your role is
in this relationship that might currently be less than ideal.
Patterns - Here
you’re looking at patterns of behaviour and ways of working that you’d like to
change. This area is most likely where coaching-for-development conversations
will emerge.
“What’s on your mind?” you ask. “The [insert
name of thing they’re working on],” they say. “So there are three different
facets of that we could look at,” you offer. “The project side—any challenges
around the actual content. The people side—any issues with team
members/colleagues/other departments/bosses/customers/clients. And patterns—if
there’s a way that you’re getting in your own way, and not showing up in the
best possible way. Where should we start?” It doesn’t matter which one they
pick—it will be a strong start to the conversation.
Whatever you’re thinking about can
also influence the choices you make, so you might not, in fact, make the
optimal choice.
If you know what question to ask,
get to the point and ask it.
2: The AWE Question: “And
What Else?”
There are three reasons it has the
impact that it does: more options can lead to better decisions; you rein
yourself in; and you buy yourself time. Having at least one more option lowered
the failure rate by almost half, down to about 30 percent. When you use “And
what else?” you’ll get more options and often better options. Better options
lead to better decisions. Better decisions lead to greater success.
We’ve all got a deeply ingrained
habit of slipping into the advice-giver/expert/answer-it/solve-it/fix-it mode. In
short, even though we don’t really know what the issue is, or what’s going on
for the person, we’re quite sure we’ve got the answer she needs. When you’re
not entirely sure what’s going on, and you need just a moment or two to figure
things out, asking “And what else?” buys you a little extra time.
Get used to asking the question with
genuine interest and curiosity. For bonus points, practice listening to the
answers. As a guideline, I typically ask it at least three times, and rarely
more than five. “There is nothing else”
is a response you should be seeking. It means you’ve reached the end of this
line of inquiry. Take a breath, take a bow and go on to another question.
A strong “wrap it up” variation of
“And what else?” is “Is there anything else?” That version of “And what else?”
invites closure, while still leaving the door open for whatever else needs to
be said. Now it’s generally assumed that four is actually the ideal number at
which we can chunk information. If you get three to five answers, then you’ve
made great progress indeed.
ASK THE RIGHT QUESTIONS IF YOU’RE GOING TO
FIND THE RIGHT ANSWERS. Vanessa Redgrave
Follow-up questions that promote
higher-level thinking (like “And what else?”) help deepen understanding and
promote participation. Stop offering up advice with a question mark attached. If
you’ve got an idea, wait. Ask, “And what else?” and you’ll often find that the
person comes up with that very idea that’s burning a hole in your brain. And if
she doesn’t, then offer your idea—as an idea, not disguised as a fake question.
3: The Focus Question – “What’s the Real Challenge Here For
You?”
In which you find out how to stop
spending so much time and effort solving the wrong problem.
It keeps the question personal and
makes the person you’re talking to wrestle with her struggle and what she needs
to figure out. Focus on the real problem, not the first problem.
Some of the well-practiced but
ineffective patterns that show up between you and the person you’re coaching.
These are the patterns that keep things misty and vague when you’re trying to
bring the challenge into focus. At Box of Crayons, we call them the
Foggy-fiers, and we call the three most common ones the Proliferation of
Challenges, Coaching the Ghost, and Abstractions & Generalizations.
Proliferation of Challenges - “What’s on your mind?” has unleashed a seemingly unending
stream of things he’s worried about. “If you had to pick one of these to focus
on, which one here would be the real challenge for you?”
Coaching the Ghost - The
key thing to know here is that you can coach only the person in front of you.
As tempting as it is to talk about a “third point” (most commonly another
person, but it can also be a project or a situation), you need to uncover the
challenge for the person to whom you’re talking. “I think I understand some of
what’s going on with [insert name of the person or the situation]. What’s the
real challenge here for you?”
Abstractions & Generalizations - Quite often there’s talk about “us” and “we,” but there’s no
talk of “me” and “I.” “I have a sense of the overall challenge. What’s the real
challenge here for you?”
The simple act of adding “for you”
to the end of as many questions as possible is an everyday technique for making
conversations more development- than performance-oriented. Yes, the problems
still get sorted out. But with “for you” there’s often additional personal
insight, and with personal insight comes increased growth and capability.
Trust That You’re Being Useful. Questions—“What
was most useful here for you?”—so you create a learning moment for the person
and for you. Remember That There Is a Place for Your Advice. One of your roles
as a manager and a leader is to have answers. We’re just trying to slow down
the rush to this role as your default behavior. Remember the Second Question. every
question gets better when you add, “And what else?”
You can take this insight and add it
to all of the questions you ask people. Adding “for you” to a question helps
people figure out the answers faster and more accurately.
Yes, there’s a place for asking
“Why?” in organizational life. And no, it’s not while you’re in a focused
conversation with the people you’re managing. Here are two good reasons:
You put them on the defensive. Get the tone
even slightly wrong and suddenly your “Why… ?” come across as “What the hell
were you thinking?” It’s only downhill from there.
You’re trying to solve the problem. You ask
why because you want more detail. You want more detail because you want to fix
the problem. And suddenly you’re back in the vicious circles of overdependence
and overwhelm.
If you’re not trying to fix things,
you don’t need the backstory. Stick to questions starting with “What” and avoid
questions starting with “Why.” It’s no accident that six of the Seven Essential
Questions are What questions.
4: The Foundation Question: “What Do You Want?”
But even if you do know what you
want, what you really really want, it’s often hard to ask for it. But even if
you know what you want and are courageous enough to ask for what you want, it’s
often hard to say it in a way that’s clearly heard and understood. On the other
side of the conversation, it can be hard to understand that when someone makes
a request, when she tells you what she wants, you don’t actually have to say
Yes. You can say No. Or Maybe. Or Not that, but this instead.
Want: I’d like to have this.
Need: I must have this.
Rosenberg says that there are nine self-explanatory
universal needs: AFFECTION, CREATION, RECREATION, FREEDOM, IDENTITY,
UNDERSTANDING, PARTICIPATION, PROTECTION, SUBSISTENCE
“What do you want?” is an
extraordinarily strong question. Its power is amplified when you not only ask
the question of the person you’re working with but also answer the question for
yourself. Over the course of humankind’s evolution, the successful survival
strategy has been “better to be safe than sorry.”
There are four primary drivers—they spell out the acronym TERA
- T is for tribe. The brain is asking, “Are you with me, or are you against me?” If it believes that you’re on its side, it increases the TERA Quotient. If you’re seen as the opposition, the TERA Quotient goes down.
- E is for expectation. The brain is figuring out, “Do I know the future or don’t I?” If what’s going to happen next is clear, the situation feels safe. If not, it feels dangerous.
- R is for rank. It’s a relative thing, and it depends not on your formal title but on how power is being played out in the moment. “Are you more important or less important than I am?” is the question the brain is asking, and if you’ve diminished my status, the situation feels less secure.
- A is for autonomy. Dan Pink talks about the importance of this in his excellent book Drive. “Do I get a say or don’t I?” That’s the question the brain is asking as it gauges the degree of autonomy you have in any situation. If you believe you do have a choice, then this environment is more likely to be a place of reward and therefore engagement. If you believe you don’t have a choice so much, then it becomes less safe for you.
Your job is to increase the TERA
Quotient whenever you can.
Silence is often a measure of
success. Bite your tongue, and don’t fill the silence. I know it will be
uncomfortable, and I know it creates space for learning and insight.
5: The Lazy Question: “How Can I Help?”
Karpman says, we’re bouncing around
between three archetypal roles—Victim, Persecutor and Rescuer—each one as
unhelpful and dysfunctional as the other.
- Victim The core belief: “My life is so hard; my life is so unfair. ‘Poor me.’” The dynamic: “It’s not my fault (it’s theirs).” The benefits of playing the role: You have no responsibility for fixing anything; you get to complain; you attract Rescuers. The price paid for playing the role: You have no sense of being able to change anything—any change is outside your control. You’re known to be ineffective. And no one likes a whiner. Stuck is: “I feel stuck because I have no power and no influence. I feel useless.”
- Persecutor The core belief: “I’m surrounded by fools, idiots or just people less good than me.” The dynamic: “It’s not my fault (it’s yours).” The benefits of playing the role: You feel superior and have a sense of power and control. The price paid for playing the role: You end up being responsible for everything. You create Victims. You’re known as a micromanager. People do the minimum for you and no more. And no one likes a bully. Stuck is: “I feel stuck because I don’t trust anyone. I feel alone.”
- Rescuer The core belief: “Don’t fight, don’t worry, let me jump in and take it on and fix it.” The dynamic: “It’s my fault/responsibility (not yours).” The benefits of playing the role: You feel morally superior; you believe you’re indispensable. The price paid for playing the role: People reject your help. You create Victims and perpetuate the Drama Triangle. And no one likes a meddler. Stuck is: “I feel stuck because my rescuing doesn’t work. I feel burdened.”
THE MINUTE WE BEGIN TO THINK WE HAVE
ALL THE ANSWERS, WE FORGET THE QUESTIONS. Madeleine L’Engle
The power of “How can I help?” is
twofold. First, you’re forcing your colleague to make a direct and clear
request. Second (and possibly even more valuably), it stops you from thinking
that you know how best to help and leaping into action. The more direct version
of “How can I help?” is “What do you want from me?” Other phrases that can have
a similar softening effect on the question being asked are “Just so I know…” or
“To help me understand better…” or even “To make sure that I’m clear…” What’s
essential to realize is that regardless of the answer you receive, you have a
range of responses available to you.
- “Yes” is one, of course. You can always say Yes. But you don’t have to say Yes, and your sense of obligation to say Yes is the source of your anxiety.
- “No, I can’t do that” is another option. Having the courage to say No is one of the ways you stop being so “helpful.”
- “I can’t do that… but I could do [insert your counter-offer]” is a nice middle ground. Don’t just give them a No; give them some other choices.
- And finally, you can just buy yourself some time. “Let me think about that.” “I’m not sure—I’ll need to check a few things out.”
The goal here isn’t to avoid ever
providing an answer. But it is to get better at having people find their own
answers. One of the most compelling things you can do after asking a question
is to genuinely listen to the answer.
6: The Strategic Question: “If You’re Saying Yes to This,
What Are You Saying No To? “
we make the distinction between Good
Work (the everyday, get-it-done, this-is-my-job-description type of work) and
Great Work (the work with both more meaning and more impact), all with the goal
of helping organizations and their people do less Good Work and more Great
Work.
We’re slowly waking up to the fact
that being busy is no measure of success.
People have lots of snappy advice
for you. “Work smarter, not harder.” “Be more strategic.” These maxims tend to
be TBU: True But Useless sound bites that sound good but are impossible to act
upon.
Of the many definitions of “strategy”
that I’ve seen, I think I like Michael Porter’s best, when he said, “The
essence of strategy is choosing what not to do.”
But a Yes is nothing without the No
that gives it boundaries and form. And in fact, you’re uncovering two types of
No answers here—the No of omission and the No of commission.
- The first type of No applies to the options that are automatically eliminated by your saying Yes. If you say Yes to this meeting, you’re saying No to something else that’s happening at the same time as the meeting. Understanding this kind of No helps you understand the implications of the decision.
- The second type of No you’re uncovering—which will likely take the conversation another level deeper—is what you now need to say to make the Yes happen. This second type of No puts the spotlight on how to create the space and focus, energy and resources that you’ll need to truly do that Yes.
Bill “Mr. Simplicity” Jensen taught
me that the secret to saying No was to shift the focus and learn how to say Yes
more slowly. Saying Yes more slowly means being willing to stay curious before
committing. Which means asking more questions.
Being willing to stay curious like
this will likely provoke one of four types of responses, three of which might
be helpful.
- The first response, and the one that’s not useful, is that the person tells you to stop with the annoying questions and just get on with the task.
- The second response is that he has good answers to all your questions.
- Third, he doesn’t have the answers but might be willing to find them for you. That’s good.
- And finally, he may just say this: “You’re too much like hard work. I’m going to find someone who says Yes more quickly than you do.”
It’s awkward saying No to something,
because actually you’re saying No to someone.
Say Yes to the person, but say No to
the task.
In Roger Martin and A.G. Lafley’s
Playing to Win book there are 5 questions:
- What is our winning aspiration? Framing the choice as “winning” rules out mediocrity as an option. If you want to win, you need to know what game you’re playing and with (and against) whom. What impact do you want to have in and on the world?
- Where will we play? “Boiling the ocean” is rarely successful. Choosing a sector, geography, product, channel and customer allows you to focus your resources.
- How will we win? What’s the defendable difference that will open up the gap between you and the others?
- What capabilities must be in place? Not just what do you need to do, but how will it become and stay a strength?
- What management systems are required? It’s easy enough to measure stuff. It’s much harder to figure out what you want to measure that actually matters.
Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel prize
in economics in 2002 for his work on the psychology of judgment and
decision-making, and the field more generally known as behavioral economics.
He’s best known for his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, which explains that we
have two decision-making processes: a fast, instinctual “gut-feeling” one, and
a slower, more rational one.
- The first bias is the planning fallacy, which can be summed up as saying that we’re lousy at figuring out how much time something will take us to complete. It’s a combination of overestimating our abilities and, to add insult to injury, underestimating the degree to which we are overestimating. We think we can do more than we can; the Strategy Question helps us be more realistic about what’s actually possible.
- The second bias, known as prospect theory, tells us that loss and gain are not measured equally. Losing $100, say, feels worse than gaining $100 feels good. One result of the bias is that once we’ve got something, not only do we not want to let it go, but we also tend to overvalue its worth.
you’re staying focused on the
questions rather than rushing to offer advice and suggestions. Remember to
acknowledge the person’s answers before you leap to the next “And what else?” This
isn’t about judging people; it’s about encouraging them and letting them know
that you listened and heard what they said.
7: The Learning Question: “What Was Most Useful for You?”
People don’t really learn when you
tell them something. They don’t even really learn when they do something. They
start learning, start creating new neural pathways, only when they have a
chance to recall and reflect on what just happened.
Your job as a manager and a leader
is to help create the space for people to have those learning moments. “AGES” stands for Attention, Generation,
Emotion and Spacing.
Why “What Was Most Useful for You?”
Tops the List
- It Assumes the Conversation Was Useful
- It Asks People to Identify the Big Thing That Was Most Useful
- It Makes It Personal
- It Gives You Feedback
- It’s Learning, Not Judgment
- It Reminds People How Useful You Are to Them
peak-end rule. In short, how we’re
evaluating an experience is disproportionately influenced by the peak (or the
trough) of the experience and by the ending moments.
LIST OF 7 QUESTIONS:
- “What’s On Your Mind?”
- “And What Else?”
- “What’s the Real Challenge for You Here?”
- “What Do You Want?”
- “How Can I Help?”
- “What Are You Saying No To?”
- “What Was Most Useful for You?”
7 Ağustos 2017 Pazartesi
Istanbul taksileri icin alternatif yaklasim
Vietnam'da ilgimi ceken konulardan arasinda bireysel tasimadaki Uber/Grab ve firma taksisi kavramlari var.
Uber ve Grab
Bunlar benzer duzenlemeler, cogunuz zaten taniyorsunuz, Istanbul'da da var ama Istanbul tarifeleri taksi ucretlerine yakin veya daha yuksek, yani cazip degil. Ustelik Istanbul uygulamasi otomobillerle sinirli.
Burada birinci vasita elbette motor, moto uber cok populer. Taksinin dortte biri gibi bir fiyata ve trafige takilmadan hizlica hedefe ulasiyorsunuz. Suruculerde Uber ceketleri ve logolu bir cift kask var. Sizde ve surucude uygulama es zamanli calisiyor, surucunun sizi almasina ne kadar kaldigindan yolculugun ne kadar tutacagina kadar her sey telefonunuzda. Pratikte herkes yolculuk sonrasinda surucuyu puanliyor, bir sonraki musteri icin secim kriteri veya Uber icin sozlesme yenileme konusunda karar noktasi olusuyor. Her seyahat sonrasi eposta adresinize makbuz geliyor.
Ayrica Uber'de motor - otomobil-panelvan-luks arac gibi opsiyonlar da var. Otomobil olani da taksiden %20 civarinda ucuz. Cocuklarinizi Uber ile ornegin antremana vb gonderdiginizde arzu ederseniz yolculugun tamamini telefonunuzdan izleyebiliyorsunuz. Birine ulasim kolayligi saglamak istediginizde Uber hediye edebiliyorsunuz, ismarlayabiliyorsunuz. Kredi kartindan veya nakit odeme mumkun.
Taksiler
Asil deginmek istedigim nokta taksi duzenlemesi, Istanbul hakkinda dusundurdu beni. Paylasmak istedim. Mevcut sorunlari paydas bazinda gruplayarak baslayalim:
Simdi buradaki isleyisi biraz anlatayim. Taksilerde 2 ayri sahiplik modeli var: Birincisi bireysel suruculer, taksi plakasi almislar, hic bir sekilde guvenilir degil, bilenler asla bunlara binmiyor. Ikincisi firmaya bagli taksiler; iki firma var: Vinasun beyaz taksiler ve Mailinh yesil taksiler. Benim calistigim firma lokal olarak bulunurluk kolayligini gozeterek Mailinh tercih etti, buradan devam edecegim.
Arac tipine gore iki ayri tarife var, 7 kisilik buyuk araclar bilinen otomobillerden daha yuksek fiyatli. Her aracta akilli taksimetre ve buna bagli mobil yazarkasa var. Ayrica suruculerde manuel doldurulan makbuzlar da var.
Suruculer firmanin calisanlari, tanitim kartlari var ve ise basladiklarinda aracin taksimetresinde kart basiyorlar. Boylece hem ise devam yani puantaj takip ediliyor hem de aracin kimde oldugu biliniyor, calisma suresi izlenebiliyor.
Taksimetrede GPS var, aracin musteriyi nereden alip nereye goturdugu izlenebiliyor, sistem otomatik ucret hesabi yapiyor ve taksimetredekiyle capraz kontrol ederek sistem kaydina aktariyor. Bir seferinde otoyol gecis ucretini eklerken islem hatasi yaparak yuksek fatura duzenledi, aksaminda Mailinh arayarak bir yanlislik yapildigini, duzeltildigini ve dogru fiyatla sisteme aktarildigini bildirdi. Dolayisiyla taksimetrenin ayarsizligi vb gibi konularda firma gelir kaybindan sakinmis, musterisine de durust davranmis oluyor. Aracta taksimetreye erisilebilecek ve sokulebilir tum parcalar muhur teliyle korumaya alinmis.
Taksimetre aracin hizini, yolculuk suresini, gidilen yolu ve buna uygun olarak izlenen tarife modelini yolcunun gorebilecegi sekilde ekranda guncelliyor. Ilk 250metre ucretsiz, 30km ye kadar bir tarife, 30km sonrasinda daha dusuk bir tarife var. Her 5 dakika bekleme icin tarife baska, arac durdugu zaman bekleme suresini isletmeye basliyor, yani yavas ilerleyen bir trafikte beklemis olmuyorsunuz.
Firmamin basvurusuyla banka uzerinden Kredi Karti formatinda Mailinh taksi card duzenlendi. Seyahatin sonunda karti okutup PIN girerek veya surgulu makineyle (burada tirnaklarini surterek yapiyorlar:) fatura duzenliyor. PIN girildiginde yazarkasa fisi cikiyor, surgulude eski usul makbuz var. Donem sonunda Mailinh tum seyahatlerin dokumunu veriyor, tek bir fatura duzenliyor, firmanin muhasebesi de kolaylasiyor.
Bazi taksilerde wifi var, cok kullanisli oluyor. Coklu USB arac adaptoru genellikle var, telefonu sarj edebiliyorsunuz.
Gelelim Istanbul onerilerime:
Oneri 1: Taksi mal sahiplerini bir kooperatif vb modelinde tuzel kisilige cevirelim.
Oneri 4: Cesitli taksi uygulamalari Belediye onderliginde tek bir platformda bir araya getirilsin. Uber modelindeki gibi yolcular taksi cagirabilsin, ucreti onceden gorebilsin, en yakindaki ve kabul eden taksi surucusu yolcuya yonlendirilsin
Oneri 5: Motor kuryede veya Uber Motoda oldugu gibi Istanbul'da da acelesi olan / butcesine ozen gosteren / heyecandan hoslananlar icin motor servisi baslatilsin
Uber ve Grab
Bunlar benzer duzenlemeler, cogunuz zaten taniyorsunuz, Istanbul'da da var ama Istanbul tarifeleri taksi ucretlerine yakin veya daha yuksek, yani cazip degil. Ustelik Istanbul uygulamasi otomobillerle sinirli.
Burada birinci vasita elbette motor, moto uber cok populer. Taksinin dortte biri gibi bir fiyata ve trafige takilmadan hizlica hedefe ulasiyorsunuz. Suruculerde Uber ceketleri ve logolu bir cift kask var. Sizde ve surucude uygulama es zamanli calisiyor, surucunun sizi almasina ne kadar kaldigindan yolculugun ne kadar tutacagina kadar her sey telefonunuzda. Pratikte herkes yolculuk sonrasinda surucuyu puanliyor, bir sonraki musteri icin secim kriteri veya Uber icin sozlesme yenileme konusunda karar noktasi olusuyor. Her seyahat sonrasi eposta adresinize makbuz geliyor.
Ayrica Uber'de motor - otomobil-panelvan-luks arac gibi opsiyonlar da var. Otomobil olani da taksiden %20 civarinda ucuz. Cocuklarinizi Uber ile ornegin antremana vb gonderdiginizde arzu ederseniz yolculugun tamamini telefonunuzdan izleyebiliyorsunuz. Birine ulasim kolayligi saglamak istediginizde Uber hediye edebiliyorsunuz, ismarlayabiliyorsunuz. Kredi kartindan veya nakit odeme mumkun.
Taksiler
Asil deginmek istedigim nokta taksi duzenlemesi, Istanbul hakkinda dusundurdu beni. Paylasmak istedim. Mevcut sorunlari paydas bazinda gruplayarak baslayalim:
- Yolcunun kayiplari
- Surucu mesafeyi begenmeyerek almaktan vazgecebilir
- Surucu yolu uzatarak tutari sisirebilir
- Ne zaman taksi rastlayacagini bilemedigi icin erken cikmak zorunda kalir
- Gittigi yerde "ya taksi bulamazsam" stresi yasar
- Kotu muamele, kayip esya, vb sorunlarda muhatap belirsizlesir
- Bir yakinini bindirdiginde emniyetli seyahatinden emin olamaz
- Cesitli uygulamalar arasinda kafasi karismistir
- Surucunun kayiplari
- Yolcu bulmak icin bos gezmek zorunda kalir
- Bos gezen aracin yakit maliyetine, kaza riskine katlanir
- Dinlenme sansi bulamaz
- Sosyal guvencesi yoktur
- Yolcunun verdigi para sahte cikabilir, bozuk para yoklugu eksik tahsilata yol acabilir
- Mal sahibinin kayiplari
- Bos gezen taksiler yipranir, periyodik bakimi siklasir, kaza riski artar
- Surucu arzu ederse arkadaslarini ucretsiz tasiyabilir
- Arabanin basina bir kaza, calinti vb gelirse nerede oldugunu bilmek zordur
- Firmanin kayiplari
- Yolcu ve surucu aralarinda anlasarak tutarin uzerinde fis duzenleyebilir
- Cok sayida fisin muhasebelestirilmesi ve kontrolu zaman alir
- Kamunun kayiplari
- Araclarin surat limitlerine, periyodik bakim, zorunlu sigorta vb uygunlugu belirsizdir
- Suruculerin asiri uzun saatlerle calismasindan kaynaklanan kaza riski vardir
- Bos gezen taksiler karbon salinimini ve trafik yogunlugunu artirir
- Fissiz islemler nedeniyle vergi kaybi vardir
Simdi buradaki isleyisi biraz anlatayim. Taksilerde 2 ayri sahiplik modeli var: Birincisi bireysel suruculer, taksi plakasi almislar, hic bir sekilde guvenilir degil, bilenler asla bunlara binmiyor. Ikincisi firmaya bagli taksiler; iki firma var: Vinasun beyaz taksiler ve Mailinh yesil taksiler. Benim calistigim firma lokal olarak bulunurluk kolayligini gozeterek Mailinh tercih etti, buradan devam edecegim.
Arac tipine gore iki ayri tarife var, 7 kisilik buyuk araclar bilinen otomobillerden daha yuksek fiyatli. Her aracta akilli taksimetre ve buna bagli mobil yazarkasa var. Ayrica suruculerde manuel doldurulan makbuzlar da var.
Suruculer firmanin calisanlari, tanitim kartlari var ve ise basladiklarinda aracin taksimetresinde kart basiyorlar. Boylece hem ise devam yani puantaj takip ediliyor hem de aracin kimde oldugu biliniyor, calisma suresi izlenebiliyor.
Taksimetrede GPS var, aracin musteriyi nereden alip nereye goturdugu izlenebiliyor, sistem otomatik ucret hesabi yapiyor ve taksimetredekiyle capraz kontrol ederek sistem kaydina aktariyor. Bir seferinde otoyol gecis ucretini eklerken islem hatasi yaparak yuksek fatura duzenledi, aksaminda Mailinh arayarak bir yanlislik yapildigini, duzeltildigini ve dogru fiyatla sisteme aktarildigini bildirdi. Dolayisiyla taksimetrenin ayarsizligi vb gibi konularda firma gelir kaybindan sakinmis, musterisine de durust davranmis oluyor. Aracta taksimetreye erisilebilecek ve sokulebilir tum parcalar muhur teliyle korumaya alinmis.
Taksimetre aracin hizini, yolculuk suresini, gidilen yolu ve buna uygun olarak izlenen tarife modelini yolcunun gorebilecegi sekilde ekranda guncelliyor. Ilk 250metre ucretsiz, 30km ye kadar bir tarife, 30km sonrasinda daha dusuk bir tarife var. Her 5 dakika bekleme icin tarife baska, arac durdugu zaman bekleme suresini isletmeye basliyor, yani yavas ilerleyen bir trafikte beklemis olmuyorsunuz.
Firmamin basvurusuyla banka uzerinden Kredi Karti formatinda Mailinh taksi card duzenlendi. Seyahatin sonunda karti okutup PIN girerek veya surgulu makineyle (burada tirnaklarini surterek yapiyorlar:) fatura duzenliyor. PIN girildiginde yazarkasa fisi cikiyor, surgulude eski usul makbuz var. Donem sonunda Mailinh tum seyahatlerin dokumunu veriyor, tek bir fatura duzenliyor, firmanin muhasebesi de kolaylasiyor.
Bazi taksilerde wifi var, cok kullanisli oluyor. Coklu USB arac adaptoru genellikle var, telefonu sarj edebiliyorsunuz.
Gelelim Istanbul onerilerime:
Oneri 1: Taksi mal sahiplerini bir kooperatif vb modelinde tuzel kisilige cevirelim.
- Suruculer kooperatifin calisanlari olsunlar, asgari ucret ve is kanunu haklarina kavussunlar.
- Yaptiklari tahsilattan pay alsinlar, prim gibi olsun.
- Aractaki taksimetreye kendilerini tanitsinlar, tanitim olmadan arac calismasin.
- Aracin nerede oldugunu, hangi rotada gittigini, seyahatin ne kadar surdugunu, ucret kontrolunu saglayalim.
- Kotu niyetli yolcularin eylemleri halinde araci bulmayi kolaylastiralim.
- Eger taksilere bolge ayrimi yaptiysak bolge disina cikan taksiyi fark edebilelim.
- Yakinlarimizin seyahatlerini takip edebilelim.
- Surat limiti, zorunlu sigorta ve muayene sureleri vb cevrimici izlenebilsin.
- Aracin yaptigi yol ve tahsilati arasinda bag kurulsun, mal sahibi suistimal edilmesin.
- Islemlerin neticesinde vergi kaybi onlensin
Oneri 4: Cesitli taksi uygulamalari Belediye onderliginde tek bir platformda bir araya getirilsin. Uber modelindeki gibi yolcular taksi cagirabilsin, ucreti onceden gorebilsin, en yakindaki ve kabul eden taksi surucusu yolcuya yonlendirilsin
- Uber deki gibi degisken tarife degil, taksimetre esastir ancak bir min - max araligi olur, taksimetre bu araliktaysa musteri taksimetredeki ucreti yoksa uygun limiti odesin.
- Uygulamalar arasi, firmalar arasi premium tarife farklarina izin verilsin.
- Gelecege donuk taksi rezervasyonu yapilabilsin, musteri donusu garantiye alabilsin.
- Musteri - surucu eslesmesi taksimetredeki kayda yansitilsin.
- Firmalara taksi card opsiyonu saglansin (business card gibi), firmalara donem ici hareket dokumu ve tek fatura duzenlenebilsin (kredi karti ekstresi gibi)
Oneri 5: Motor kuryede veya Uber Motoda oldugu gibi Istanbul'da da acelesi olan / butcesine ozen gosteren / heyecandan hoslananlar icin motor servisi baslatilsin
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